4 Birthday boy Marco Reus has scored four goals against Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League, more than against any other club. Indeed, no other German player has scored as many goals against Real in the competition Anticipation.
— OptaFranz (@OptaFranz)
Two DFB-Pokal wins are all Reus has to show for his distinguished spell with BVB, having also missed Germany s 2014 World Cup win due to injury. Kroos, on the other hand, could cap his career with a record-equalling sixth European crown, with his first coming with Bayern against Dortmund.
Whoever lifts the trophy, expect emotional scenes.
5 Toni Kroos has won the UEFA Champions League on five occasions in the history of the European Cup/UCL, only Paco Gento (6 times) has won it more often, with Kroos able to equal the record this year. King.
— OptaFranz (@OptaFranz)
What s expected?
Unsurprisingly, given their continental pedigree, Real Madrid enter Saturday s showpiece game as favourites, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 55.6 per cent chance of victory inside 90 minutes.
Dortmund are assigned just a 21.4 per cent chance of claiming the trophy within regulation time, with 23 per cent of simulations seeing the final go to extra time and potentially penalties.
This will be Madrid s 18th appearance in a European Cup or Champions League final, with their 17 previous finals already the most of any club. They have lifted the trophy on 14 of those 17 appearances.
Dortmund, meanwhile, are making just their third appearance in a Champions League final, having overcome Juventus 3-1 in 1997 before losing 2-1 to Bayern in 2013. This will be the first Champions League final between a Spanish team and a German team since 2002, when Los Blancos overcame Bayer Leverkusen 2-1.
Only Man City (28) have bettered Madrid s 26 goals in this season s edition of the Champions League, while only City (25.1) and PSG (24.9) have topped their total of 24.3 expected goals (xG). Dortmund rank seventh for goals scored (17) and eighth for xG (15.2), with both finalists outperforming their underlying attacking metrics in the competition, Dortmund by 1.8 and Madrid by 1.7.
It is at the other end where BVB might have been a little fortunate. Their average of 1.9 expected goals against (xGA) per Champions League game in 2023-24 is the highest of any team to progress beyond the group stage, and they have been indebted to goalkeeper Gregor Kobel.
According to Opta s expected goals on target (xGoT) model, he has prevented 7.1 goals in the Champions League this term, conceding seven times from 14.1 xGoT faced. Madrid, meanwhile, have conceded 15 times from 15.6 xGA.
Gregor Kobel with the most clean sheets in 2023/24
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague)
Sancho to cap underdog story?
When Jadon Sancho was unceremoniously exiled from the Manchester United squad by Erik ten Hag last September, few would have expected to see him play in European football s biggest game within the same season.
Sancho was initially slow to get going upon his loan return to the Westfalenstadion in January, but he has found his feet in recent months, particularly in Europe.
The winger produced a talismanic display in the first leg of Dortmund s semi-final triumph over PSG and has completed 25 dribbles across his six Champions League appearances this season.
That is the most by any player in the knockout stages of a single edition of the tournament since Neymar recorded 32 for losing finalists PSG in 2019-20.
Should Sancho inspire Terzic s men to victory, it will go down as one of the greatest comeback stories in recent memory.
Moreover, having finished fifth in the Bundesliga, Dortmund will be the second-lowest ranked German team to ever compete in a European Cup/Champions League final, after Bayern won the 1974-75 edition while finishing 10th domestically.
Fans of an underdog story will be right behind Sancho and Dortmund on Saturday.
Is Madrid s name on the trophy?
When Carlo Ancelotti led Madrid to their most recent European crown in 2021-22, it sometimes felt like a greater force was at work.
Los Blancos came from behind in three successive knockout ties against PSG, Chelsea and City, pulling off increasingly unlikely rescue acts to reach the showpiece game in Paris, where Thibaut Courtois heroics set the stage for Vinicius Junior to down Liverpool.
There has been a greater degree of control about Madrid this season, but their European aura certainly remains intact.
Madrid have only trailed for 7.5 per cent of their total game time in the Champions League this season (90 minutes out of 1,200), the lowest percentage of any side.
They have, however, fought back to win four matches in which they ve been behind in the competition this term, with only Barcelona in 1999-00 and Madrid themselves in 2016-17 (five each) having more comeback wins in a single edition.
The most memorable of those saw Joselu s late brace dump Bayern Munich out in the semi-finals, but they also had to hold firm to keep RB Leipzig and City at bay in their previous knockout ties.
Teams are advised to play the game rather than the occasion, but Madrid often find something extra when it matters most in a tournament they regard as their own.
